64 Comments
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May 21
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I suggest you check her FB page which she filled with articles on her interference.

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Aging is not for cowards. Voting for Stefanik is. 🙃

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Agree on both points.

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Stefanik is the biggest hypocrite I have seen in a long, long, time. She is disgusting!!

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By not properly listening to or advocating for her constituents she is worthless for CD 21. And yes, she disgusts.

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Sarcasm appreciated! What business does a congressman have in Israel at taxpayers expense anyway?! Where is Doris Kelly when we need her?

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I was actually surprised she wasn't in NYC too during the trial. Maybe next week...

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I also wondered why she was not in NYC. Over the years, Stefanik has had this ability to walk aright up to the line and then not cross over.

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Elise is fundraising in Israel.

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Indeed.

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Lots of territory covered here, apropos of the wrap up with On Golden Pond.

Thanks for your experience, memories, caring, and opinion/take on it all. I especially appreciated the words on Doris Kelly, whose political presence I missed the eight short years I was lucky enough to live in the ADK region.

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Thank you - to Doris Kelly somewhere in the ether.

Good luck to Paula Collins! And thank you as well for having the energy and courage to run against the loathsome sycophant, Our Elise. We can only hope ..... and send $$$!

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And put up those lawn signs.

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"That seems to be hypocritical." If you look up "hypocritical" in the dictionary they have her picture. I get her newsletter and she claims to be proud to serve the people of the 21st CD. Well, the less than half of us who are MAGAs . The trip to Israel? Really? How does that help the 21st? I've called her office regarding a few things such as the overwhelming amount of phone spam I get (more than legit calls by about double) & a missed payment from the feds. Crickets. Carrie Worner took care of the later. I feel like my phone number is blocked, I call her office from my phone and it goes right to the machine. I used my wife's phone 30 seconds later, and I get through. The January 6 hostages statement would have been enough to sink a candidate even ten years ago, but dear Elise won't sit for an interview with newspaper, she shows up for the TV segments where she can talk over and ignore questions. She has successfully ended the career of several prominent university presidents that less than 1% of our fellow north country citizens might attend. Pauls Collins is smart to know that she doesn't stand a chance this time, and it leaves me to wonder, why has something as important as choosing our representative become blood sport? Ms. Stefanik will comment on the "law fare" taking place against the former guy, but has yet to address the allegations them selves. We see she is on the lower rung of the VP stakes, and I hope she gets it, that will get her out of our hair for a while.

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I do think I have a chance. Based on the turnout for Tedra Cobb and Matt Castelli, I need 167,000 votes. That's a few zip codes in some parts of NY. It comes down to voter turnout, and working with the voters who are registered, but not affiliated with any party.

The hardest thing in this district: overcoming Democrats' despair.

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I am on the Greenwich Democratic committee and look forward to meeting you, and yes there is despair regarding Elise, but in other areas we are making headway. We picked a bad candidate last time based on who we thought might stand a chance and as soon as he got the nod, he was a 2nd amedment guy and trying to play in Elies's yard, and lost by 18% . But I disagree, the hardest part is the blindness of her supporters and their numbers here are overwhelming. We know that the NOPs( no official party) are key. Overall turnout in the district is fairly strong, but getting through to them is tough. I mean, she won last time and has so much cash that it is hard to match her lying rhetoric with the sunshine of truth.

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Sadly, money in politics has become the most important issue. Thanks to the Supreme Court.

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Of course. But SCOTUS did not mandate us to make it a predominant theme of candidacy. Nobody shows up to the polls and checks the campaign contributions lists. But neither do they vote for the candidate whom everyone says can't possibly win. (Ask the RFK campaign, or the Green Party candidates, or -- heck -- go all the way back to Ross Perot.) We are in a self-defeating spiral if we perpetuate the notion that NY21 cannot be won by anyone other than a MAGA Republican.

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As far as I'm concerned - the same applies to paying any attention to the "polls". They mean nothing - except for the few who answer the phone when pollsters call! I dont - so obviously, have never been asked. I really dont see the sense in it. Without knowing the actual questions asked and if there are as non-sensical as the polls themselves sound - why pay attention to them.

I'm not in your district, but fairly close by - did send you a few bucks - be grateful - I think thats possibly the second time I have ever donated.

I really hope you win.

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I am reminded of an old Simpsons episode where Clinton and Dole have both been taken over by the aliens Kodos and Kang, and when the ruse is discovered, the aliens laugh triumphantly and say, “It’s a two party system, you have to vote for one of us!” Then a guy in the audience says, “I think I’ll vote for the third party candidate”, and one of the aliens says “Go ahead, throw your vote away!!” So Kang won.

And that’s how all humanity ended up as slave labor building a giant death ray aimed at some planet no one ever heard of. And Homer says, “Don’t blame me, I voted for Kodos!”

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I think Collins’ thumbnail assessment is correct. It has, of course, always been about turnout and Democrats in the last few elections have boosted their own turnout fairly successfully, but there has been a concurrent and even larger turnout among GOP voters - many of whom had been infrequent voters before Trump.

The question in my mind is whether the more traditional GOP voter will find it too impossible to vote for Trump this time. Which brings up another question, will those disaffected with Trump still vote down ballot, or maybe be even more likely to vote down ballot because they feel bad not voting for president?

Fortunately Stefanik is working very hard to make her voters see her a being tied tightly to Trump.

I suspect Collins will do better than Castelli.

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Also, I think 165,000 is a huge lift for a Dem in this district and not likely to be achieved.

But can Stefanik maintain her sky high vote tallies?

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Why is 165,000 a huge lift? There are 779,000 people in the district.

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But there are not 779,000 registered voters and somewhere around 45% (I haven’t actually looked up that number, it’s just a guess) of the registered voters are Republicans. In 2020 the district turned out 320,788 voters of which 131,995 voted for the Democrat (Tedra Cobb). 165,000 votes is 25% more than that high water mark. Cobb increased Dem vote by about 38% from 2016 to 2020, which was an enormous increase and turnout in 2020 was already fairly high.

So assuming Dems are still motivated to turn out at similar levels that 25% increase will need to come from unaffiliated or disaffected GOP.

You’re unlikely to get a large disaffected GOP vote. They are more likely to not vote than to vote for you. But that still works in your favor.

So, as you noted at the top unaffiliated are the pool that need to be turned, and that is a risky pool. They likely break down skewed slightly conservative and Stefanik has a ton of money to figure out which of them she needs to vote.

I don’t think money is the be all and end all in a race at this time, but it has created a structural advantage over time for Stefanik because she has the history of internal polls, voting records, and voter contact. She has the money to set volunteers up to deliver voters to the polls.

The question in my mind is whether her base is getting tired of her antics.

If so there is a chance this could be a close race at around the 160,000 mark. But not easy.

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I'm so glad to know that you are volunteering to help out with the campaign.

:)

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Many registered Republicans here are what I’ve heard called “hereditary Republicans,” as in their daddy voted Republican, and his daddy before him, etc. (I’m sure in other parts of the country it’s the same thing with Democrats.) A person would practically need a crystal ball to figure out who among them are die hards and who among them actually vote for the person, not the party. There are also people like one of my neighbors, whose husband was told flat out when they moved here in the 60’s that if he wanted a county job, he needed to be a registered Republican. So they became registered Republicans, but have always voted for whoever they thought was best, without regard to party. The MAGA wing is seemingly too far gone, but the Republicans of Convenience and the hereditary Republicans are in play. They just need someone to inspire them!

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Cobb got 138,995 votes. I'm talking about getting another 30,000 voters, drawn from three different demographics: Dems who didn't vote last time, Republicans who can no longer stomach the MAGA machine, and non-party-affiliated voters. So, 30,000 voters, spread over the 14 counties and 15,000 square miles of NY21. It's a challenge. But we're Democrats. We do difficult things.

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and I truly apologize for saying that you know you don't stand a chance, I have no way of knowing what you think, but I will work to get you elected in any event. Despair? yeah there is that....

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Thank you. Let's connect.

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Stefanik has succeeded in raising her profile all while so much less for her actual constituents!

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Go Paula!

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Well, you have two votes from my house, at least! Maybe other folks will be fed up enough with Stefanik to give someone else a chance. I certainly hope so!

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And yet she has NEVER committed NOT to lie! That goes back to 2018 campaign.

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Sounds like a philosophy question. Would you believe her if she answered the question?

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Why is Stefanik meddling in Israel? Why is she allowed to undermine our government and campaign for trump in Israel?

And who exactly paid for her trip there?

She is as morally bankrupt as trump.

And the sad thing is, she will win easily here without even trying.

The blue team, in my opinion, has run poor candidates against her. The DNC helped Cobb - who I saw as the worst pick, and then seemed to stop helping anyone running against her. Nice people, but no one strong or monied enough to seriously challenge her. Castelli seemed to be the strongest candidate but she destroyed him. And she's the MAGA cheerleader- the cultists here lick that bs up.

It will take trump going to prison to get rid of her and that's only a 50/50 shot at removing her.

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Cobb was a candidate who delivered greater increases in Dem vote than any Dem in recent NY21 elections. The DNC provided her little to no support, which has become a longstanding position.

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She got alot of support after George Conway.

Why is it that they aren't interested in funding any of these Dems?

I was not a fan of Cobb...first time we met I asked her a question about universal Healthcare....she sidestepped me repeatedly. It's a yes or no question.

I thought Castelli would steal some R votes....but I remember saying after I met him that I thought there was more to his agenda than what was actually being said.

I do think more people came out to vote back then, and there was a Green running too.

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I have no direct insight on the DNC, but my opinion is that Rahm Emmanuel is a piece of sh*t. Backstory: Howard Dean’s term as DNC chair focused on a 50 state strategy, a concept of funding races even in places where Dems didn’t look strong on paper in order to build party. He pioneered seeking small donors and Obama used that strategy and Dean’s leadership to win decisively. Then Obama put Rahm Emmanuel in charge of the DNC (and did not offer Dean a position in his cabinet). Rahm ditched the 50 state strategy and courted big money donors. I guess it made him feel like a big man, but since then Dems have struggled with voters and in places that I think they should have been stronger in.

Cobb was not a perfect candidate (nobody is) and she struggled at times with messaging because she was not a full time politician or political actor. She was a real person who lived a real life and was not robotic with talking points like Stefanik is.

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Had not even thought of the backstory.

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Great to meet you in person, Ken. And thank you for mentioning me in your column.

I wish I would have met Doris Kelly. Like her, I am feisty.

NY 21 is only now getting to know me. It's time to make Stefanik panic.

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Ken, THANK YOU for keeping Stefanik's hypocrisy front and center...AND for giving Diane Collins a push. On a positive note, I do believe Diane Collins is "in" for the long haul!!!! It takes time to make a "dent" in the 21st District, and I do believe she has the "chops" to do it. Stefanik definitely needs to do, and maybe it's beginning with the NY Times not so nice article about her....we'll see. In the meantime, so glad you're here to keep telling it like it is...

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Just co clarify because there are two "Collins" mentioned here. Diane organized the climate walk in Glens Falls Saturday while Paula is the congressional candidate.

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The Collins people are everywhere. Let's not forget about Mayor Billy Collins.

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Kudos to Diane Collins for her hard work on bringing the climate crisis front and center. She's a role model as a community leader and we need more like her. Congratulations Diane.

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I too met Paula Collins unexpectedly at the Climate Change event yesterday. When I realized who she was I spontaneously said, "Paula! What a pleasure! Can I give you a hug?"! We had a delightful conversation. How refreshing to see a sincere, morally compassed person challenging Elise.

On a different note--arguably this only happens in Hometown USA--the Glens Falls HS marching band just marched by and played near our house in preparation for the Memorial Day parade, I'm sure. Except for our current congressional representation, another great reason to live in Glens Falls!

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Thank you, Ken, for getting the word out about Paula Collins--and writing what she says so articulately. Her words discussing Stefanik's positions state clearly why Stefanik lacks all integrity, care, honesty...and why it is shameful that our area supports her and supports Trump--people who would harm earth and harm democracy for power and for greed. It may be "hopeless" but I think of President Carter's words of faith: to do all he can, when he can, wherever he can, for as long as he can...Words for all of us. Thanks again, Ken...

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Stefanik is like a rabid animal attacking--attacking Biden for everything he does, attacking college presidents and any others for being anti-semitic. The truth is that the Maga base has sooo many anti-semites and racists as strong parts of their base and that Stefanik continually supports candidates who are anti-semitic. It is shameful that Johnson and Maga Republicans in the House did not want to give humanitarian aide to those suffering in Gaza...and support Netanyahu and the right wing in Israel. For those who want to hear the voices of peace and justice in Israel, tune into Rabbis for Human Rights, New Israel Fund, Standing together--Palestinians and Israel. and other groups that want a cease fire and justice for Israel and Gaza....

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That’s the problem with corporate newspapers like The Post-Star. They play bookmaker and almost always back incumbents. Why not have backed that old lady 20 years ago, instead of sending another machine empty suit to DC?

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I have to disagree. We endorses many, many candidates who were not incumbents, including Green Party candidate Matt Funiciello for Congress. If you go back and check the record of our endorsements there is a clear record of endorsing who the best candidate. While Doris Kelly should be applauded for giving voters a choice, she was not the best candidate for the job.

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Well, Funicello makes since because it’s a throwaway and you hate Stefanik but I used to study midsized chain papers like yours and I’d bet if you go back and count you probably endorsed incumbents at a 70-80% clip. Hardly 50-50. These papers were a part of the establishment. And now they are practically dead.

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I think we endorsed the best candidates. In small local elections that was usually the incumbent. There were many very bad challengers. But we were open-minded.

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Not anything to do with politics.

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Thank you for standing up for the good and calling out the bad. And reminding me about “On Golden Pond”.

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