Ken wrote: “The one thing is clear, the district now leans much farther right than before. The question is why.”
There are a lot of questions —
Do those registered as Republicans and Conservatives vote more consistently and more often than those registered as Democrats and Working Families Party? (Generally speaking, on average only about two-thirds of those who can vote do vote.)
What percentage of voters, on either side of the political continuum, are new voters? Did the right-wing/populist movements, from the Tea Party in 2008 to Trump in 2016, bring in new right-wing voters? Are Democrats attracting new voters? If so, who are they?
Does the fact that the North Country population is aging have any impact on party affiliation? What are the demographics of additional 20,000 unaffiliated voters?
I wrote about some of this. There was a problem in formatting when it posted so I went back and added pics of charts so it may be a bit confusing to read in place, but there are some numbers.
One of the first statistics I found interesting was that more people are now registered to vote than ever before, but party affiliation has remained a constant. There are now more independents than ever before.
Yes. Except that the word *independent* is problematic. Blank is probably a better word because despite not registering with the one of the major parties many of those people vote in a manner consistent with many people registered as DEM or REP.
I submit that nobody is more independent than me, yet I am a registered Democrat.
But anyway, numbers of blanks are approaching the numbers of Dems.
I’ll be interested to see more of what NCPR finds in their analysis of voter registration in N.Y. 21
A major factor that they seem not to have addressed is that 2 - 4 years ago several 3rd parties lost “permanent” ballot access and their registrations were automatically dropped. These include parties generally considered right wing like Reform and Independence, but also left wing Green Party. That accounts for a large portion of the shift toward unaffiliated registrations, but the trend has been a factor among new registrations and people leaving the major parties - in my analysis more Republicans than Democrats.
The swing in St Lawrence and Franklin counties is likely a result of closures in recent years of some large unionized employers like Alcoa in that area.
I’ll have to dig out my notes but if I remember the vote tallies it appears that the Tea Party and MAGA movements delivered a lot of new voters - people who formerly were not voters or active voters - in large numbers early in Stefanik’s rise, but Democrats have gained voter numbers as well just at a more moderate pace.
My conclusion is that the right topped out in their ability to deliver new voters in NY21 in 2020 and that we will still see a higher number of voters on the Dem line - Dems, unaffiliated, and Republicans unhappy with the direction their party has taken. It likely won’t be an immediate threat to Stefanik but it may identify weakness that can be exploited if she tries to run again in 2 years - which may be a dubious proposition.
Genetic testing for cancer is definitely a good thing. The earlier you catch cancer, the better the chance of beating it. But I wonder why cancer screening isn’t just part of a routine check up? My daughter’s cancer came out of the blue. She is still younger than any of the recommendations for beginning screening for anything, and we have zero history of cancer on either side of the family. She now has frequent blood tests that look for signs of active cancer. Why can’t everyone just have those tests they way they check for cholesterol or blood sugar?
My guess is the cost to the insurance companies. There are so many cancers out there, that could lead to a lot of testing. The genetic testing certainly narrows the scope.
I agree insurance companies probably don’t want to pay, but how much more does it cost them to treat late stage cancer? Oh wait, often they make sick people jump through hoops to justify their treatment, so maybe they’re not too worried about the cost because they’ve figured out how many people will die and save them money if they delay treatment…perhaps it’s just me, but shouldn’t people’s health and life be first and foremost the most important goal of healthcare? Having a profit motive in healthcare is the worst way for it to be run. Here are two links to information about blood tests that could go a long way to saving lives if they could be a part of standard check ups. They may not be 100% effective for all cancers, but for many it literally could be the difference between life and death.
Dems created this breeding ground for candidates like Elise Stefanik by not staying local and letting national folks run vanity carpet-bagging candidates like Matt Castelli, who spent more on beard conditioner than local campaign ads.
Whatever it took Stefanik to get into office, she has maintained that momentum while the financial backing isn’t there for the Dems. No one cares if Stefanik was a carpet bagger a dozen years ago at this point except the ideologues who can’t see clearly. Dems should spend $5M here just to send a message, but won’t. Meanwhile, they are also losing other formerly Dem districts.
I think you can make a pretty good argment that we have not had a local congressman since Jerry Solomon. John Sweeney, Chris Gibson, Kirsten Gillibrand and Scott Murphy all grew up somewhere else than the district and moved to the district to run for office. And of course, Elise Stefanik did it as well.
Our area has been redistricted variously over the last couple decades. So for us it would be Jerry but for the northern part of the district there was Bill Owens and a long string of local with the exception being Stefanik.
Out of that whole list of names, even the execrable John Sweeney, Stefanik is the only representative who I believe would check my voter registration before deciding to help me with anything. Why do I feel like that? Because for years now she has spoken of people like me as the enemy. Not just as people who disagree with her or that she thinks maybe have the wrong take on different policies, but as literal enemies.
Thank you Ken for your story. I’m so sorry that your wife and you have had to deal with cancer. It’s a terrible disease.. physically and emotional draining to the cancer patient and family members.
I have several members of my family who had cancer- some members happily are cancer survivors and others have suffered and passed away. I am fortunate and thus far have been spared. I will def talk with my doctor about the testing you mentioned.
Treasure each day - take nothing for granted.
Enjoy & focus on time with family and friends. 🙏Namaste
Since my wife was diagnosed 13 years ago, that is exactly how we have lived our lives. We have probably done more, seen more and traveled more since then than at any time previously. It is a good way to live your life.
Genetic testing is a reality for several medical conditions these days and there are always people who really don't want to live with the knowledge that they COULD get a condition because they have the "genetic makeup" for it. Living with that worry in the background? I'm not sure what the answer should be except that it has to be an individual one...and I think that can be a tough decision. Constant testing...has it's own kind of fear..."Is my time finally UP??" Really a very impressive description of your own family's experiences, Ken....thank you.
Well, I think the thing to remember is that the genetic testing does not guarantee you will get the cancer if you have the mutation, just that the odds are greater than the general populous so it is in your best interest to do screenings earlier and more often.
God willing, the Republican Party is on its way to being nothing more than a rump party. If we have to endure the pimple on the rump I suppose that’s our cross to bear. Maybe in the high number of independent voters there lies hope anyway.
Trump’s appearance at NABJ and Vance’s continuing bumbling past comments about childless cat ladies doesn’t seem like the way to grow a party. The RNC had Kid Rock. The DNC is assuredly going to have Beyoncé. The future versus make America 1850 again.
I follow conservatives at Bulwark, Atlantic and even MSNBC is packed with NeverTrump Republicans. Beyond Trump and the Republicans in Congress who can’t quit him it seems to be a dying party.
🤞 The November elections are a bloodbath for the GOP. Do they find a way to retire Trump or do they immediately make him the presumptive nominee for 2028?
His sponsor in Moscow seems to have written him off. Praise for the release of Evan Gershkovitch, Paul Whelan and the others yesterday. 🙏
Im happy fir you & your wife both Ken. I strongly believe for all living creatures we should strive for quality of life and death with dignity. Passion and productivity - take each day one at a time. I hope and wish that I can make a difference in the lives of others and help them to find /achieve inner peace
Very important to know about genetic testing! Have never heard it done so comprehensively before!
Ken wrote: “The one thing is clear, the district now leans much farther right than before. The question is why.”
There are a lot of questions —
Do those registered as Republicans and Conservatives vote more consistently and more often than those registered as Democrats and Working Families Party? (Generally speaking, on average only about two-thirds of those who can vote do vote.)
What percentage of voters, on either side of the political continuum, are new voters? Did the right-wing/populist movements, from the Tea Party in 2008 to Trump in 2016, bring in new right-wing voters? Are Democrats attracting new voters? If so, who are they?
Does the fact that the North Country population is aging have any impact on party affiliation? What are the demographics of additional 20,000 unaffiliated voters?
I wrote about some of this. There was a problem in formatting when it posted so I went back and added pics of charts so it may be a bit confusing to read in place, but there are some numbers.
https://mikeparwana.substack.com/p/ny21-election-statistics-you-didnt
Thanks for those statistics.
Which raises the question of what percent of registered voters vote contrary to their enrollment? And, for which parties do unaffiliated voters vote?
And, how many voters split their votes among parties down ballot?
My head is spinning now….
I’m a registered Republican, literally a RINO. So, there’s one.
One of the first statistics I found interesting was that more people are now registered to vote than ever before, but party affiliation has remained a constant. There are now more independents than ever before.
Yes. Except that the word *independent* is problematic. Blank is probably a better word because despite not registering with the one of the major parties many of those people vote in a manner consistent with many people registered as DEM or REP.
I submit that nobody is more independent than me, yet I am a registered Democrat.
But anyway, numbers of blanks are approaching the numbers of Dems.
I’ll be interested to see more of what NCPR finds in their analysis of voter registration in N.Y. 21
A major factor that they seem not to have addressed is that 2 - 4 years ago several 3rd parties lost “permanent” ballot access and their registrations were automatically dropped. These include parties generally considered right wing like Reform and Independence, but also left wing Green Party. That accounts for a large portion of the shift toward unaffiliated registrations, but the trend has been a factor among new registrations and people leaving the major parties - in my analysis more Republicans than Democrats.
The swing in St Lawrence and Franklin counties is likely a result of closures in recent years of some large unionized employers like Alcoa in that area.
I’ll have to dig out my notes but if I remember the vote tallies it appears that the Tea Party and MAGA movements delivered a lot of new voters - people who formerly were not voters or active voters - in large numbers early in Stefanik’s rise, but Democrats have gained voter numbers as well just at a more moderate pace.
My conclusion is that the right topped out in their ability to deliver new voters in NY21 in 2020 and that we will still see a higher number of voters on the Dem line - Dems, unaffiliated, and Republicans unhappy with the direction their party has taken. It likely won’t be an immediate threat to Stefanik but it may identify weakness that can be exploited if she tries to run again in 2 years - which may be a dubious proposition.
Genetic testing for cancer is definitely a good thing. The earlier you catch cancer, the better the chance of beating it. But I wonder why cancer screening isn’t just part of a routine check up? My daughter’s cancer came out of the blue. She is still younger than any of the recommendations for beginning screening for anything, and we have zero history of cancer on either side of the family. She now has frequent blood tests that look for signs of active cancer. Why can’t everyone just have those tests they way they check for cholesterol or blood sugar?
My guess is the cost to the insurance companies. There are so many cancers out there, that could lead to a lot of testing. The genetic testing certainly narrows the scope.
I agree insurance companies probably don’t want to pay, but how much more does it cost them to treat late stage cancer? Oh wait, often they make sick people jump through hoops to justify their treatment, so maybe they’re not too worried about the cost because they’ve figured out how many people will die and save them money if they delay treatment…perhaps it’s just me, but shouldn’t people’s health and life be first and foremost the most important goal of healthcare? Having a profit motive in healthcare is the worst way for it to be run. Here are two links to information about blood tests that could go a long way to saving lives if they could be a part of standard check ups. They may not be 100% effective for all cancers, but for many it literally could be the difference between life and death.
https://health.clevelandclinic.org/the-galleri-test
https://www.mdanderson.org/cancerwise/liquid-biopsies--understanding-ctdna-and-circulating-tumor-cells.h00-159463212.html
Dems created this breeding ground for candidates like Elise Stefanik by not staying local and letting national folks run vanity carpet-bagging candidates like Matt Castelli, who spent more on beard conditioner than local campaign ads.
I’m not sure how different Stefanik is than Castelli.
Democrats have run Aaron Wolf who lives in ETown.
Mike Derrick who is from the Plattsburgh area but was a career Army officer and who I assume still lives near Plattsburgh.
Tedra Cobb 2x who lives near Canton and has lived there for decades.
So Dems have consistently provided local candidates but the district voted for the carpet bagger. 🤷🏻♂️
Whatever it took Stefanik to get into office, she has maintained that momentum while the financial backing isn’t there for the Dems. No one cares if Stefanik was a carpet bagger a dozen years ago at this point except the ideologues who can’t see clearly. Dems should spend $5M here just to send a message, but won’t. Meanwhile, they are also losing other formerly Dem districts.
The 21st Congressional District was recently gerrymandered to make it more Republican as well.
I think you can make a pretty good argment that we have not had a local congressman since Jerry Solomon. John Sweeney, Chris Gibson, Kirsten Gillibrand and Scott Murphy all grew up somewhere else than the district and moved to the district to run for office. And of course, Elise Stefanik did it as well.
Our area has been redistricted variously over the last couple decades. So for us it would be Jerry but for the northern part of the district there was Bill Owens and a long string of local with the exception being Stefanik.
Good point. I'm definitely not as familiar with the northern part of the district.
Out of that whole list of names, even the execrable John Sweeney, Stefanik is the only representative who I believe would check my voter registration before deciding to help me with anything. Why do I feel like that? Because for years now she has spoken of people like me as the enemy. Not just as people who disagree with her or that she thinks maybe have the wrong take on different policies, but as literal enemies.
Thank you Ken for your story. I’m so sorry that your wife and you have had to deal with cancer. It’s a terrible disease.. physically and emotional draining to the cancer patient and family members.
I have several members of my family who had cancer- some members happily are cancer survivors and others have suffered and passed away. I am fortunate and thus far have been spared. I will def talk with my doctor about the testing you mentioned.
Treasure each day - take nothing for granted.
Enjoy & focus on time with family and friends. 🙏Namaste
Since my wife was diagnosed 13 years ago, that is exactly how we have lived our lives. We have probably done more, seen more and traveled more since then than at any time previously. It is a good way to live your life.
Genetic testing is a reality for several medical conditions these days and there are always people who really don't want to live with the knowledge that they COULD get a condition because they have the "genetic makeup" for it. Living with that worry in the background? I'm not sure what the answer should be except that it has to be an individual one...and I think that can be a tough decision. Constant testing...has it's own kind of fear..."Is my time finally UP??" Really a very impressive description of your own family's experiences, Ken....thank you.
Well, I think the thing to remember is that the genetic testing does not guarantee you will get the cancer if you have the mutation, just that the odds are greater than the general populous so it is in your best interest to do screenings earlier and more often.
Thanks for the PSA and the link to NCPR.
God willing, the Republican Party is on its way to being nothing more than a rump party. If we have to endure the pimple on the rump I suppose that’s our cross to bear. Maybe in the high number of independent voters there lies hope anyway.
Trump’s appearance at NABJ and Vance’s continuing bumbling past comments about childless cat ladies doesn’t seem like the way to grow a party. The RNC had Kid Rock. The DNC is assuredly going to have Beyoncé. The future versus make America 1850 again.
I follow conservatives at Bulwark, Atlantic and even MSNBC is packed with NeverTrump Republicans. Beyond Trump and the Republicans in Congress who can’t quit him it seems to be a dying party.
🤞 The November elections are a bloodbath for the GOP. Do they find a way to retire Trump or do they immediately make him the presumptive nominee for 2028?
His sponsor in Moscow seems to have written him off. Praise for the release of Evan Gershkovitch, Paul Whelan and the others yesterday. 🙏
Im happy fir you & your wife both Ken. I strongly believe for all living creatures we should strive for quality of life and death with dignity. Passion and productivity - take each day one at a time. I hope and wish that I can make a difference in the lives of others and help them to find /achieve inner peace
🙏Namaste
Thank you very much for the information on genetic testing.
My brother died unexpectedly 2 weeks ago.
What is the approximate cost for this testing?
Mary Ann Puricelli