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Al Bellenchia's avatar

“We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.” - Elie Wiesel

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mike parwana's avatar

months ago, when hardly anyone had heard the name Paula Collins, I predicted she would receive 38%-42% of the vote against Stefanik.

38% would represent a baseline anti-Stefanik vote and Stefanik would trumpet her 62% win.

But if Stefanik’s tally dips below 60% of the vote it is a troubling signal of her weakness in the district despite a massive advantage of money, incumbency, and name recognition.

42% for Collins would signal Stefanik’s weakness in the district since it would likely mean that turnout for Stefanik will have dropped and her support for Trump has turned her base against her.

43% for Collins would be a stunning result and would show national Democrats that Stefanik is not as strong as she appears, that she would be vulnerable in the next election.

Imagine a 45% vote for Collins!

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